Well, ladies and gentlemen, we are one day away from the 2024 election and we already do have almost 80 million early votes cast. Now, I would imagine the turnout is probably going to be another record high based off of this early voting number. However, there has been a higher emphasis especially on the Republican side of doing the early voting; the Democrats maybe not so much considering 2020 and the pandemic and everything that happened. But 76 million, that's basically half what we saw in terms of 2020, the overall turnout there. I think there's a few reasons we keep going up--the age of the internet, Donald Trump--there's a lot of people motivated to vote for him, vote against him. But let's take a look at this. You can see 41% Democrats, 39% Republicans; that is party registration, that doesn't guarantee. Kamala Harris is at 41 and Trump's at 39, but we can surmise that 95 plus% of Democrats are going to be voting for Kamala, 95 plus% of Republicans are going to be voting for Trump. That's just the reality. And then you do have the other at 20% which is very important, doing a lot of heavy lifting because you've got 41 to 39 to 20, and that's what it's going to come down to when you're talking about the independence.
However, if you look at Arizona right now you do see Donald Trump having a very, very nice lead right now when you talk about the early vote and you can see around 2 million votes requested overall, Donald Trump up by around 9%, 42 to 33, with 25% as third party. Now, normally the third party or the other, they do vote slightly more Democrat when it comes to Arizona, but this is obviously a significant upgrade from 2016 and where the early voting was in Arizona. So I would expect Donald Trump to not win the state by 9 points, I know it's like a reversal. We always think, well if Trump's doing this in terms of the early voting, think about the day of voting, but you also have that 25% that we're not accounting for probably a lot of those people are going to be voting for Harris, but that's not to say that she's going to be able to make that up; we don't think she is right now. Trump's up nine in Arizona, that is very, very good news, you will take that. But this is again with the early voting just because he's up by nine right now, it doesn't mean that he's going to win by even over nine because again these 25% are very important that are right now unaccounted for.
But you can see a 5% advantage for women when it comes to the early vote, which is pretty good when you talk about just early vote in general and how much women normally vote more early than men. But there is that, and then moving back and I am going to quickly take a look at it because you can adjust this for gender and you can see this is the divide that people are talking about and a lot of Republicans are ringing the alarm bells about. You've got 53% women, 44% men, that's a nine-point advantage for women over men right now. And what I would say to this is that it's kind of a double whammy when it comes to elections: women normally always outnumber men and it's always because of minority women over minority men, white men actually vote more than white women by about 3%. But this 53 to 44 doesn't surprise me because white women or, excuse me, just on average women vote more than men and on top of that they do early voting more than men, so it's like a double whammy. But it's not at 9%; you're going to see that gap closed for sure when it comes to the day of results and the day of voting. There's going to be more men voting day of; this right here is why there were a lot of alarm bells that were rung.
Things are looking very, very nice for Donald Trump in Florida. You can see Republicans at 44%, Democrats at 33%, that's an 11-point advantage; you've got others sitting at 23%. Ohio, it's very impressive, Trump sitting up by 10 in Ohio in the early vote, there's still a lot more votes out, but there's only 10% other. So yeah, Republicans up 50 to 40, I could see around a nine to a 10-point win for Donald Trump in Ohio which would signal a clear Bernie Moreno Victory. And when it comes to Pennsylvania, which is the most important swing state right now. Democrats do have a big advantage, however, their firewall has been significantly cut.
Georgia, Republicans sitting up three in terms of the early vote, that's very, very good news when you look at that, Georgia looks really good. I would say North Carolina looks solid, Arizona looks really good, this is pretty much what we expected. You take a look at Nevada, the early vote's been great in Nevada, that's part of the reason why the odds have moved on Nevada to where it's a slight Trump favorite now, you see Republicans sending plus four over Democrats, and then the other at 28%, so there's another good sign in Nevada, this is like a Rust Belt election. If Trump can take the Sun Belt you only need one or you don't even need a Rust Belt state, if you can take a New Hampshire where Republicans are only trailing by four right now, that's not to say they're going to lose by four, there's a lot more data that goes into it, there's day of votes, there's the amount of people that are not registered with a party. You've also do have Virginia right now, Democrats sitting plus 11. Virginia is a state that Trump is certainly trying to flip although he only did one rally there so we'll see in, in Salem. But Democrats right now plus 11 there, but those are pretty much if you take a look, I think you can filter for battleground states so they have the seven battleground states Democrats plus three, Democrats plus six, Democrats plus 24, Republicans plus one, Republic well I accidentally clicked that um Republicans plus three, Republicans plus four, Republicans plus nine. The Republicans are putting up a significantly better fight in terms of the early vote; there's no doubt about it. The gender is what's going to have to be made up when it comes to these states and I think it will.
Q: What is the emphasis on early voting turnout and party registration in the 2024 election?
A: The early voting turnout has been high, with almost 80 million early votes cast. There has been a higher emphasis on early voting on the Republican side compared to the Democrats. Party registration currently shows 41% Democrats, 39% Republicans, and 20% other.
Q: How are early voting trends shaping up in Arizona?
A: In Arizona, Donald Trump is leading in early voting by around 9%. There are approximately 2 million votes requested, with 42% for Trump, 33% for the Democrats, and 25% as third party. Trump's lead is seen as a significant improvement from the 2016 numbers.
Q: What are the gender disparities in early voting?
A: Women have a 5% advantage in early voting compared to men. The divide shows 53% women and 44% men, translating to a nine-point advantage for women. This disparity is attributed to the fact that women generally outnumber men in voting and engage more in early voting.
Q: How are early voting trends in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania comparing for the upcoming election?
A: In Florida, Republicans lead with 44% compared to Democrats at 33%. In Ohio, Trump is up by 10 points, and in Pennsylvania, Democrats have a significant advantage, but their firewall has been diminished.
Q: What is the analysis of battleground states and popular vote trends?
A: In battleground states, Republicans are up in Georgia by three points, signaling positive results. North Carolina and Arizona also look favorable for Republicans. Georgia could be key, Nevada is also showing good signs for the Republicans. Virginia remains a state of interest for Trump, with Democrats leading by 11 points.
