Let's take a look at the polling aggregates across those seven key battlegrounds that we've been talking about. Right in your some about you see a little bit more red than below. In fact, there is no blue in the Sunbelt. But again, it's way too close to call Trump by three in Arizona, two in Georgia, one in North Carolina, a tie in Nevada. Come over to those Great Lakes and a little bit more blue here. But look at this. Just a point in Michigan. Less than a point when you're breaking out this symbol, Jessica. The less than you know how close the race is. And then of course, in Pennsylvania, all-important Pennsylvania tie t I ed that's the bottom line of this election. Way too close to call at this point. All of the key states within a couple of points. And arguably the most important one, Pennsylvania tied just tied up.
Put that in terms of the electoral map for us. How does that bear out? Yeah. How does the electoral map bear out? Well, if the results match the polling averages, guess what? Neither candidate gets to 270 electoral, but I don't even I don't even know what other way to put it, because Pennsylvania becomes the all-important key state. Whoever wins, Pennsylvania wins the election. We've been talking about week after week after week, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, just to the southwest of me here in New York City, becomes the all-important state. If you can figure out who wins Pennsylvania, you probably know who's going to win the election, because at this point, the polls can only tell you that both candidates are short of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. That is, of course, if the polls are actually right on the money, which they probably won't be.
Okay, explain that to us because they're not perfect. No, they are not perfect. So, you know, let's go through history, right. Let's go back since 1972 and look at the key battleground states and say, how off were the polling averages? The polls aren't perfect. They are a tool. They get you in the neighborhood. But when the race is this close, when all the key battleground states are within three percentage points, that's within the average error band, the average error band for state polling average since since 1972 is get this 3.4 points, 3.4 points. And then if you talk about a margin of error, right, like a 95% confidence interval, we're talking about more like plus or minus nine points. All of the key battleground states are within this error band, and they're actually within the average error band as well. So let's kind of talk about what happens if you have an average error and apply it to the electoral map.
Right. Well, if we have an average error and Donald Trump benefits from the average error, guess what? He gets way past 270 electoral votes. He gets to 312. Why? He carries all the Great Lake battleground states. He carries the southeast battleground states in North Carolina and Georgia, and it carries Nevada and Arizona out west. But of course, Jessica, there's no guarantee that the polls being offered necessarily benefit Donald Trump, even though they did both in 2016 and 2020, because they could. In fact, the polling miss could benefit Kamala Harris like that; the Democrats back in 2022, if there was in fact a polling miss that benefited Kamala Harris, an average polling is she'd get north of 300 electoral votes. Look at that. You get the 319. Why she carry the Great Lake battleground states right. She carry Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, she carry the southeast battleground states, Georgia, North Carolina. And she'd carry the southwest battleground states of Nevada and Arizona.
Yeah. What do you make of the state of play in those right now? Yeah. First of all, I coined the Blue Wall back in 2009, and initially it referred to the 18 states that ultimately voted Democratic in all six elections from 92 to 2012. And most states either party had won over six consecutive elections since the formation of the modern party system in 1828. Trump, of course, famously dislodged Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin from the blue wall in 2016. And now when people talk about the blue wall, they usually referring just to those three states. So my mind it's kind of the bricks that fell out of the wall have become the wall. Now, what's really important is that since 2016, Democrats have regained the initiative in those three states. I think the evidence is that the counter mobilization or the backlash to Trump has been more powerful than the mobilization that Trump effectuated in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. The Democrats won the governorships in all 3 in 2018.
That's so interesting. You bring up that point because in talking with people, you kind of remind them that things, conventional wisdom that we've all held true for a long time, a lot of it in so many ways, is getting turned weirdly upside down in this race. If it ends up shaking out in the final result, one of them being to your point, Harris is strength with white voters, and maybe Trump's, you know, gaining and strength with with voters of color, especially in cities, which is it which is an interesting dynamic, right? I mean, you know, race and age are kind of narrowing as divides in this election and gender and education levels are widening in this, election.
And, you know, if you kind of look at it that way, you know, in the Sunbelt states, such a high percentage of the electorate overall and certainly such a high percentage of the Democratic coalition, are voters of color that even small shifts away from the Democrats particularly, you know, what we're seeing among Latino voters. We'll have to see how much actually pans out among black voters, but possibly some among black men. Even small shifts can be really damaging to their ability to win those kind of states, where it is generally tougher to win white voters. Historically, Democrats have run better among white voters in the, blue wall former blue wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And as I said, they are a larger share of the electorate 80% in Michigan, 80% in Pennsylvania, and 90%, in Wisconsin. So you have a scenario where it's not hard to imagine that Harris's advantage in the popular vote will erode from what Biden did in 2020, he won the popular vote by four and a half points. Maybe she could. She might only win the popular vote by as little as Hillary Clinton did, two points or even less.
But even if she does, if she's holding her support among white voters, she will be better position than Clinton was to still hold Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin with a narrow advantage in the popular vote. And, you know, Pennsylvania obviously is the toughest of the three. We've been accustomed to the idea that all three of these states vote to the right of the nation overall because they did in 2016 and 2020, but it was the opposite in the first four elections in this century. And if we have this kind of inverted pattern of racial support, it would not be surprising to me if, in fact, these states vote more Democratic in the country overall, or something very close to the overall national level.
Q: What is the analysis of polling aggregates in key battlegrounds?
A: The polling aggregates in key battlegrounds show a very close race with states like Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada being within a couple of points. Pennsylvania is highlighted as the all-important state with a tied polling result.
Q: How does the impact of polling averages affect the electoral map?
A: If the results match the polling averages, neither candidate reaches the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Pennsylvania becomes the crucial state for winning the election.
Q: What is the historical context on polling accuracy?
A: Polls are not perfect and have an average error band of 3.4 points since 1972. The polling averages have an error margin of plus or minus nine points, affecting the accuracy of predicting outcomes in key battleground states.
Q: What are the potential electoral outcomes based on polling errors?
A: In case of average polling errors benefiting Donald Trump, he could secure over 270 electoral votes. However, if the errors benefit Kamala Harris, she could exceed 300 electoral votes and win battleground states across the country.
Q: What is the discussion on the Blue Wall states?
A: The Blue Wall originally referred to states that consistently voted Democratic. Trump dislodged Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2016, but Democrats have regained momentum in these states since 2016, especially in the 2018 governorship elections.
Q: How have voter demographics and electoral strategy shifted?
A: Conventional wisdom about voter demographics has been challenged in this election, with race and age narrowing as divides while gender and education levels are widening. Strategic shifts in voter demographics could impact election outcomes.
Q: What is the strategic voter analysis and its implications on election outcomes?
A: Small shifts in voter demographics, particularly among voters of color in Sunbelt states, can significantly impact the Democratic coalition's ability to win. Harris's strength with white voters and Trump's gains with voters of color are key dynamics to watch.
Q: How does Nikki Haley's impact on electoral strategy affect the election?
A: Nikki Haley's impact on electoral strategy could influence support among white voters and affect the outcome in crucial states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The analysis considers the shift in racial support and its potential effect on election results.
